是的。
叶冬青在为过两年即将到来的次贷危机埋伏笔,当众发表自己的看法。
将切入点选在了信用评级机构身上,直言这帮企业做得不到位,为了钱而放弃对客观真相的探索,将整个CDO市场置于危险境地当中。
现在是2005年的二月份,在前面四年多时间里,由于美国住房市场持续繁荣,加上前几年美国利率水平较低,美国的次级抵押贷款市场迅速发展,一大帮搞金融的商人们看见利益,毅然决然地冲了进去,并且将市场炒得越来越热。
房地产行业的次级贷款和普通贷款不同,主要针对资产和收入不够,又希望购买房产的人们,按照规定,前几年利率比较平稳,随后按照市场利率的波动而增加或减少。
人们觉得投资房产有利可图,再加上贷款方审核不够严格,已经在市场冷淡几十年的美国,又一次掀起了波地产热潮,其他领域的次贷市场同样过热,还由此衍生出更多种类的金融产品,吸引一**金钱涌入。
可以预料到的是,随着接下来美国住房市场的降温,尤其是短期利率的提高,次贷还款利率也大幅上升,购房者的还贷负担大为加重,多半会引起大规模贷款违约现象。
历史惊人的相似。
这是由于市场管理机制存在缺陷,被某些人误以为有漏洞可钻,次级贷款市场的蓬勃发展并没有随着叶冬青的到来而改变,哪里有利益,哪里就有铤而走险的商人,这很合理。
实际上。
从现如今的局势来看,次贷市场确实非常不错,危机才刚刚展露出一点苗头,比如刚刚叶冬青所说的违约率上涨、信用评级机构形同虚设。
不是没想过隔岸观火,等到时机差不多成熟时候进场捞一笔。
然而叶冬青已经不是2002年那会儿,想发财想到睡不着觉的那位一穷二白的可怜虫了,这点利益对他来说并不是至关重要的,只会让投资对冲基金的那帮有钱人、以及他自己更有钱,但对于投资了房产的广大普通人而言,一旦像前世那样出次贷危机,他们将会损失所有。
这是身为超级富豪的社会责任感作祟,另外,叶冬青也觉得再来一次经济危机,可能会冲击到他的个人利益,收益和风险并存。
既然钱已经多到这辈子都花不完,花钱的速度远远比不上赚钱的速度,他觉得没必要再通过这种事故实现盈利,将自己的快乐强加在众多普通人的痛苦上,所以才在这种公开场合出言提醒。
一口气说了这么多,他拿起手边水杯时候,视线当中都是交头接耳议论起来的人群,就连老索罗斯、达里奥先生等人也都面色沉重,考虑到目前的次贷规模,如果这个行业并不如原先想象中安全,他们能预料到会造成多么深远的影响。
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